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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 91L / CATL TROPICAL WAVE SYNOPSIS…JUNE05, 2013…ISSUED 10:20 A.M. EDT…PHFC

June 5, 2013

WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HURRICANE and SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST CENTER

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Good day everyone!

Tropical Disturbance INVEST 91L continues to spin this morning in the south central GOMEX.  As of the current TWO from the NHC, the probability of 91L becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours has increased to 50% (MEDIUM).

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

Satellite loop imagery this morning still shows a disorganized system, albeit cyclonic rotation has tightened over the past 24 hours.  All of the heavy convection remains east and SE of the center, due to 20-25 knots of westerly wind shear over the system, as indicated in the current wind shear map from CIMSS.  Satellite images are linked so you may play the loop.

Based on analysis of satellite floater loop channel IR2, I have placed the center near 25.0N;89.0W.  However, current 925 mb vorticity satellite information from PSU e-WALL indicates the vort max to be located just on the…

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